8.17.2010

Alright, Um, Stalkers...Caterpillars... Gas Prices - OH, Things That Creep!!

Out of sight, out of mind.  So goes it with gas prices.  It's an okay metaphor - not perfect by any means - but here's what I'm saying: when the price of gas at the pump isn't at the forefront of the national discussion, we seem to forget about it and how critical it is to crafting our government's foreign policy.

Again, for effect: our government's foreign policy.  Sound important?  It should, I wrote it in italics.

And no, we're not at $4.11 per gallon, where we peaked in July 2008.  We're sitting relatively pretty at $2.74.  Of course, the days of $1.50 a gallon are long gone.  We've come to accept high-twos as the new norm.  It's doesn't take a crystal ball to predict we'll soon view the low-threes as the new norm.  But if there's one indicator the nation should be following like Tiger on the 18th, it's the price we're paying at the pump.

"Good try, n00b," my one friend who's smart at this stuff would say.  "Per barrel pricing is where it's at.  And I don't say 'n00b'."

Seventy six bucks.  Seems paltry compared to its record of $145 that same July 2008.  But if there's one commodity where pricing can be artificially invented as though out of the ether, it's petroleum.  I don't know that for sure; the real answer might be pork bellies, but when's the last time a pork belly drove you to work?  Don't answer that.

Fact is, there's a sleeping giant on the other side of the world.  Actually the giant has been rising for some time now, but it's one of those giants that's way, way bigger than you think once it's fully upright.  Like a giraffe, I suppose.  This giraffe is two-headed - China and India.  You can picture it.


Take a look at this technical statistics graph I drew up.  What jumps out at you right away is how much the expected China/India demand is probably going to be as compared to the current demand.  The number of oils used by these two exploding nations is going to skyrocket, not to mention grow stripes.

What does it mean?  It means when that striped demon-Giraffe is fully-awakened and sprinting, the finite supply of oil will be in that much greater demand, thus pressuring prices upward.  How up? 

Fifteen dollars per gallon.

Nah, probably not, but let's keep an eye on it, mmk?

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